CHRONIQUE D'UN CARNAGE ANNONCE: LE BALTIC DRY A ZERO !

[JacquesL]

CHRONIQUE D'UN CARNAGE ANNONCE: LE BALTIC DRY A ZERO !

15-16 Janvier 2009 : Ambrose Evans-Pritchard a frappé très fort ce matin dans le Telegraph de Londres: il révèle que l'index du Baltic Dry, celui qui mesure les échanges maritimes, est tombé à presque zéro ! Cela veut aussi dire que dans deux mois, il y aura une nouvelle vague de licenciements. Vague ? Un tsunami oui... Je ne voudrais pas être un armateur grec aujourd'hui, car il n'y a plus rien à transporter. Ce qui explique aussi la vague des PME-PMI de transports françaises qui ont déposé le bilan en masse ces trois derniers mois. Et dont on ne parle pas. Lisez l'article de l'excellent Ambrose Evans-Pritchard. Pour les archives, voici un rappel de ce blog du 6 novembre :

      06 novembre 2008: Oubliez Wall Street et le CAC 40 : voici le Baltic Dry Index qui donne le tempo des échanges commerciaux maritimes. C'est de la vrai économie, pas un indice boursier volatile, celle qui mesure les échanges de contenairs sur les océans. Regardez ces courbes et vous verrez que les mois à venir n'annoncent rien de bon, vraiment.

Revue de Presse par Pierre Jovanovic © 2008-2009 www.jovanovic.com

Shipping rates hit zero as trade sinks
Freight rates for containers shipped from Asia to Europe have fallen to zero for the first time since records began, underscoring the dramatic collapse in trade since the world economy buckled in October.


By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor
Last Updated: 3:39PM GMT 14 Jan 2009

"They have already hit zero," said Charles de Trenck, a broker at Transport Trackers in Hong Kong. "We have seen trade activity fall off a cliff. Asia-Europe is an unmit­igated disaster."

Shipping journal Lloyd's List said brokers in Singapore are now waiving fees for containers travelling from South China, charging only for the minimal "bunker" costs. Container fees from North Asia have dropped $200, taking them below operating cost.

Industry sources said they have never seen rates fall so low. "This is a whole new ball game," said one trader.

The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) which measures freight rates for bulk commodities such as iron ore and grains crashed several months ago, falling 96pc. The BDI – though a useful early-warning index – is highly volatile and exaggerates apparent ups and downs in trade. However, the latest phase of the shipping crisis is different. It has spread to core trade of finished industrial goods, the lifeblood of the world economy.

Trade data from Asia's export tigers has been disastrous over recent weeks, reflecting the collapse in US, UK and European markets.

Korea's exports fell 30pc in January compared to a year earlier. Exports have slumped 42pc in Taiwan and 27pc in Japan, according to the most recent monthly data. Even China has now started to see an outright contraction in shipments, led by steel, electronics and textiles.

A report by ING yesterday said shipping activity at US ports has suddenly dived. Outbound traffic from Long Beach and Los Angeles, America's two top ports, has fallen by 18pc year-on-year, a far more serious decline than anything seen in recent recessions.

"This is no regular cycle slowdown, but a complete collapse in foreign demand," said Lindsay Coburn, ING's trade consultant.

Idle ships are now stretched in rows outside Singapore's harbour, creating an eerie silhouette like a vast naval fleet at anchor. Shipping experts note the number of vessels moving around seem unusually high in the water, indicating low cargoes.

It became difficult for the shippers to obtain routine letters of credit at the height of financial crisis over the autumn, causing goods to pile up at ports even though there was a willing buyer at the other end. Analysts say this problem has been resolved, but the shipping industry has since been swamped by the global trade contraction.

The World Bank caused shockwaves with a warning last month that global trade may decline this year for the first time since the Second World War. This appears increasingly certain with each new batch of data.

Mr de Trenck predicts Asian trade to the US will fall 7pc this year. To Europe he estimates a drop of 9pc – possibly 12pc. Trade flows grow 8pc in an average year.

He said it was "illogical" for shippers to offer zero rates, but they do whatever they can to survive in a highly cyclical market.

Offering slots for free is akin to an airline giving away spare seats for nothing in the hope of making something from meals and fees.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/4229198/Shipping-rates-hit-zero-as-trade-sinks.html

Europe's economy contracts at rates not seen since 1930s
Dire day for Europe as Spain's jobless blasts through 3m and German industry goes into "free-fall"

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor
Last Updated: 9:10AM GMT 09 Jan 2009

German exports and industrial orders have both plunged at the steepest rate since modern records began and Spain's unemployment has surged above three million, capping one of the most disastrous days for Europe's economy since the Second World War.

Joaquin Almunia, the European economics commissioner, warned that the picture would turn "dramatically worse" this year. The eurozone's confidence index collapsed from 74.9 to 67.1, the lowest since Brussels started collecting the data in 1985.

"It makes truly dismal reading," said Julian Callow, Europe economist at Barclays Capital. "Industrial sentiment has never experienced such a rapid slump. There is an implosion of demand."

Spain lost almost 140,000 jobs in December, pushing unemployment to 3.1m or 13.4pc. The Labour Office said the country had shed a million in jobs in 2008 as the building boom collapsed. This is equivalent to 7m job losses in the United States.

The Labour Secretary Maravillas Rojo said she could not rule out a rise in unemployment to 4m this year. "We are in an unprecedented situation, and 2009 is going to be very difficult," she said.

Madrid now has its hands tied under the constraints of monetary union. It cannot slash interest rates or devalue, and it has already exhausted its scope for fiscal stimulus under the EU's Stability Pact. The one piece of good news is that euribor rates used to price almost all mortgages in Spain has dropped for 61 days in a row to 2.88pc.

Spain is now in company at last with Germany, where exports plummeted 10.6pc in November. The German economy is highly-geared to the global industrial cycle and is suddenly facing a vicious downturn as demand for machinery slumps in China, Russia, the Mid-East, and equally important as car sales crash in Italy, Spain, and Britain. The country's trade surplus has shrivelled by a third in one month.

"Industry is in free-fall," said Dirk Schumacher, from Goldman Sachs. Germany's industrial orders have plummeted 27pc year-on-year, heralding a drastic economic contraction this year. Berlin is mulling a €100bn fund to rescue companies in distress, on top of its €50bn Keynesian blitz over two years. The fiscal package includes tax cuts and infrastructure spending. Chancellor Angela Merkel's coalition has backed away from plans to `tough out' the recession after a fierce criticism from German economists and industrial leaders.

Berlin is now preparing the part-nationalisation of Commerzbank by taking a 25pc stake in exchange for a €10bn infusion of capital, helping to boost the bank's capital ratio as it digests Dresdner Bank. Commerzbank shares fell 14pc. France is also drawing up plans for a fresh €10.5bn capital injection for its banks.

Jacques Cailloux, from the Royal Bank of Scotland, said the pace of contraction in Europe is now disturbingly close to levels seen in the Great Depression. The eurozone bloc shrank by 3pc in 1930, 5pc in 1931, and 4pc in 1932.

By this count, 2009 could easily match 1930. The latest data points to 3pc contraction rate since late last year, with no improvement in sight. "Even the worst case scenarios people talked about now look too optimistic. But at least the authorities have done enough to prevent the vicious downward spiral from accelerating. We've haven't seen the sort of run on bank deposits or mass bankruptices that occurred in the 1930s. That is crucial," he said.

Elga Bartsch from Morgan Stanley said the European Central Bank may have to cut rates to 1pc and let its overnight EONIA rate drop to zero. It has already expanded its balance by 55pcc in a quiet shift to emergency stimulus, but may now have to go further than it wants to head off a "deflation trap".

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/4177664/Europes-economy-contracts-at-rates-not-seen-since-1930s.html
Ambrose Evans Pritchard